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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or merely the biggest upset.

But the current competition is distinctly different. The pool of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime strugglers rising in unison. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's competing with five other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still