Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
